Saudi Arabia's new alliance did nothing when a drone hit Jizan - analysis

Saudi Arabia's new alliance coalition proved ineffective when a drone attack targeted the Jizan Aramco refinery. Yahya Saree, the Houthi military spokesman, claimed his forces launched the drone strike as retaliation for Saudi drone strikes in Saada and Hajjah. Saudi Arabia confirmed the fire and stated it was quickly extinguished.

Two days prior, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif signed a joint agreement in Mecca, asserting that an attack on one member would be considered an attack on all three nations.

Turkey and Pakistan remained silent in response to the pact. Israeli analysts drew broad conclusions, suggesting the agreement could form an Islamic NATO, a Sunni axis, or provide Pakistan with a nuclear umbrella over Saudi Arabia. The Prime Minister's Office declined to comment on the pact.

The agreement is described as strengthening collective deterrence against aggression, though the exact text has not been published. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan described it as comparable to NATO's Article 5, mentioning a ministerial committee and a permanent secretariat in Saudi Arabia. He added that consultation follows similar protocols to those used by NATO members.

However, this was not the first time Riyadh had tested this arrangement; they had a similar defense agreement with Pakistan in 2025, which Saudi Arabia funds and the Pakistani military operates.

Iran's attacks on Saudi refineries and American aircraft in response to the 2023 strikes further emphasized the pact's limited military utility. Despite the arrangement, the Pakistani squadron remained stationed, and Pakistan continued its diplomatic role in the US-Tehran talks.

The pact's political implications are significant. Turkish Defense Minister Hakan Asif linked the agreement to a threat from Israel and called for a united military front against it. However, no published text supports the claim that Pakistan's nuclear guarantee extends to Saudi Arabia. The agreement does not fully preclude the possibility of normalization with Israel, as Israel can still be seen as a point of reference for Saudi Arabia's interests.