Putin Has Little Incentive to Negotiate While Russia Can Strike Ukraine With Ballistic Missiles — ISW
Russian President Vladimir Putin has little incentive to engage in meaningful negotiations while Russian forces retain the ability to launch ballistic missile strikes against Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) , UATV English reports. The Kremlin appears to believe it can exploit Ukraine’s shortage of missile interceptors to avoid meaningful…
Russian President Vladimir Putin lacks motivation for meaningful negotiations while his forces can launch ballistic missiles at Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), as reported by UATV English. The Kremlin apparently believes it can exploit Ukraine's lack of missile interceptors to avoid negotiations or concede on its aggressive demands, stated the ISW in their latest analysis.
The assessment revealed that Patriot systems are currently the only defense capable of countering Russia's ballistic missile threat. Consequently, the shortage of Patriot interceptors presents a significant vulnerability in Ukraine's air defense. The ISW warned that recent cuts in Patriot interceptors deliveries might push Russia to prolong the war into 2027.
The Kremlin's strategy hinges on the assumption that Russia can win a war of attrition if it maintains initiative and advances across the battlefield while systematically destroying Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, said the ISW. The Kremlin would not negotiate seriously or compromise significantly on its demands as long as Putin believes he has a viable military path to achieving his objectives, the analysts concluded.
Ukraine's shortage of Patriot missiles enables Russia to inflict substantial damage during the upcoming winter, possibly delaying negotiations and prolonging the war. Additionally, Russia is diverting some of its defense industrial capacity to produce ballistic missiles, as per the report. The ISW believes that continued success in utilizing these weapons may further diminish the Kremlin's perceived need for negotiations or moderating its demands.
The issue of Patriot interceptor shortages has been repeatedly raised by Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who reported in June that Ukraine had received fewer PAC-3 missiles than promised by its partners, partly due to the war in the Middle East.
Written by urgent.news from UATV English's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
