Pakatan Warisan-STAR-KDM beri saingan serius pada GRS, kata penganalisis

Analysts say a coalition between Warisan, STAR, and KDM could pose a serious threat to the United Sabah People Party (GRS) in the 2016 general election. However, Awang Azman Pawi from Universiti Malaya warns that such a coalition might not guarantee victory. He explains that while the three parties may be very strong due to their shared issues of fragmentation rather than lack of support, it is not automatic that they will dominate.

"Potentially, it is a very good idea for the three parties, given the main problems faced by local parties in Sabah, which is fragmentation, not lack of support," he tells FMT. On Sunday, Warisan's President Shafie Apdal announced that his party, STAR, and KDM had discussed the possibility of forming a coalition for PRU16. However, he said no agreement had been reached, but the interests and rights of Sabah would be the basis of any agreement reached.

Warisan lost in the 2022 PRU, winning only eight out of 17 parliamentary seats. However, the party won 25 seats in the November 2021 Sabah state election, only four seats behind GRS. STAR won two seats, while KDM won one seat. GRS subsequently managed to form a slim majority with the support of Pakatan Harapan (PH), Barisan Nasional (BN), Pertubuhan Kinabalu Progresif Bersatu (UPKO) and a free candidate, thus forming the government.

Awang Azman notes that overall, Warisan, STAR, and KDM already have 28 seats, just one seat short of GRS. However, more importantly, they have won a larger share of popular votes. Warisan alone received 25.6% of popular votes, surpassing GRS's 25.4%. "Although the difference appears small, when combined with 6.5% from STAR and 4.8% from KDM, they already have 36.9% of the votes," he says.

However, he acknowledges that these votes may not necessarily move block-wise among the three parties due to their previous practice of nominating candidates against each other in many areas. Both Awang Azman and Lee Kuok Tiung, another analyst from Universiti Malaysia Sabah, agree that Warisan, STAR, and KDM can complement each other politically and geographically.

They both believe that Warisan has strength in urban and coastal areas, eastern coastal areas, and majorities of Islamic Bumiputeras. They say STAR's victories in Tambunan and Bingkor, and KDM's victory in Paginatan, show the strong influence of both parties in rural and Kadazan, Dusun, and Murut-majority areas. However, Awang Azman notes that the biggest advantage of the coalition is not necessarily the ability of STAR and KDM to transfer a large number of additional votes to Warisan.

"Instead, it is that they can prevent the 'Sabah First' agenda from splintering into various candidates," he says. According to him, the collaboration between STAR and KDM can help Warisan overcome one of its weaknesses, which is penetrating the Kadazan-Dusun-Murut voter base, where local figures and ancestral roots still play a very important role.

The analyst also notes that the practical reality of such a coalition may differ from the ideal. For example, contested constituencies, especially in mixed and Kadazan-Dusun-Murut-majority areas, could be a difficult issue to resolve. "In these areas, STAR and KDM compete directly for the same voters," Lee notes. He also says the three parties have different political aspirations, and disagreements between leaders and competition for rural seats can undermine coordination even if the top leaders reach an agreement.

For Awang Azman, there is a risk in assuming that votes can automatically be transferred among the three parties. He says a coalition still needs a good candidate. Agreement on the distribution of seats also needs to be reached earlier, in addition to forming a shared narrative based on Sabah's rights under MA63, 40% of the results, better infrastructure, and greater influence in the decision-making process at the federal level.

GRS, on the other hand, can argue that it is a Sabah-based combination that is currently governing the state and is therefore in the best position to bargain with Putrajaya. The Warisan-STAR-KDM coalition can counter this by arguing that Sabah needs a stronger and independent parliamentary block that is not tied to national party affiliations.

"This narrative can be well received because PRN 2025 itself shows the political strength based on Sabah and dissatisfaction with traditional political rules involving national party affiliations," Awang Azman says. Best bet GRS To increase the chances of aligning with a Warisan-STAR-KDM coalition, GRS may need to prioritize winning over trying to compete for all seats.

Awang Azman suggests that while GRS should be prepared to compete for all 25 parliamentary seats, it should not close off the possibility of working with allies who may have an advantage in some marginal seats. "In seats where GRS is strongest, it should place candidates. However, in areas where allied strength is much stronger, allied candidates are more well-known, or have a parliamentary member, holding a coalition discussion may be more logical than creating another coalition," he says.