Pakatan Warisan-STAR-KDM beri saingan serius pada GRS, kata penganalisis

Analysts say a coalition between Warisan, STAR, and KDM could pose a serious challenge to the Sabah United People Party (GRS) in the 2016 General Election (PRU16). However, Awang Azman Pawi from Universiti Malaya cautioned that such a coalition may not guarantee victory. He explained that while the potential unity among the three parties could be very strong, it is not guaranteed to dominate.

"In theory, it is a very good idea for the three parties, given that the biggest issue faced by local parties in Sabah is fragmentation, not lack of support," he told FMT. On Sunday, Warisan's Chairman Shafie Apdal announced that his party, STAR, and KDM have been discussing the possibility of forming a coalition for PRU16. However, he noted that no agreement has been reached yet, but the interests and rights of Sabah would be the basis for any agreement.

Warisan failed to win any of Sabah's 17 parliamentary seats in the 2022 PRU15, but the party won 25 seats in the Sabah elections in November last year, only four less than GRS. STAR won two seats, while KDM won one seat. GRS later succeeded in forming a slim majority by garnering support from the People's Progressive Party Sabah (PPPS), Barisan Nasional (BN), Pertubuhan Kinabalu Progresif Bersatu (UPKO), and one independent candidate, thus forming a government.

Awang Azman pointed out that Warisan, STAR, and KDM have a total of 28 seats, just one less than GRS. However, the more important factor is the number of popular votes. Warisan alone received 25.6% of the popular votes, surpassing GRS which received 25.4%. "Even though the difference appears small, when combined with 6.5% from STAR and 4.8% from KDM, they already have 36.9% of the votes," he said.

However, he acknowledged that these votes may not necessarily be transferred bloc-wise among the three parties, as they have previously placed candidates against each other in many areas. Both Awang Azman and Lee Kuok Tiung, an analyst from Universiti Malaysia Sabah, agreed that Warisan, STAR, and KDM can complement each other politically and geographically.

Both believe that Warisan has strength in urban and suburban areas, coastal areas, and major Muslim-majority areas. They said that STAR's victories in Tambunan and Bingkor, as well as KDM's win in Paginatan, show the strong influence of both parties in rural and Kadazan, Dusun, and Murut-majority areas. However, Awang Azman noted that the biggest benefit of the coalition may not necessarily be in STAR and KDM's ability to transfer a large number of additional votes to Warisan.

"The benefit is that they can prevent the 'Sabah First' agenda from fragmenting into different candidates," he said. According to him, cooperation between STAR and KDM can help Warisan tackle one of its weaknesses, which is to penetrate the Kadazan-Dusun-Murut voter base, where local figures and roots remain influential. The analyst responded to this narrative by stating that reality may differ from the idealized version.

For example, geographical boundaries, especially in mixed and Kadazan-Dusun-Murut-majority areas, could become a difficult issue to resolve. "In this area, STAR and KDM compete directly for the same voters," Lee said. He also mentioned that the three parties have different political aspirations, and the tension between leaders and the competition to win seats at the grassroots level can weaken coordination, even if the top leaders reach an agreement.

For Awang Azman, there is a risk if one assumes that votes can be automatically transferred among the three parties. He said the coalition still requires a promising candidate. An agreement on the distribution of seats also needs to be reached earlier, in addition to forming a shared narrative based on Sabah's rights under Article 63 of the Constitution, 40% of the results, better infrastructure, and greater influence in the federal decision-making process.

GRS, on the other hand, can argue that it is the pro-Sabah bloc that has been governing the state and is therefore in the best position to engage with Putrajaya. Conversely, Warisan-STAR-KDM can argue that Sabah needs a stronger and independent parliamentary bloc that is not tied to party relationships at the federal level. "This narrative can be well received as PRN 2025 shows the political strength based on Sabah and dissatisfaction with traditional political rules involving national party alliances," Awang Azman said.

Best Bet The Sabah United People Party (GRS) would need to prioritize winning over contesting in all 25 parliamentary seats to increase its chances of forming a coalition with Warisan-STAR-KDM. Awang Azman suggested that while GRS should prepare to contest all 25 seats, it should not close the door to working with partners who may have an edge in some marginal seats.

"In seats where GRS is strongest, they should place their candidates. However, in areas where their allies are much stronger, allies with recognized MPs or parliamentary candidates may be a more logical choice than creating another coalition," he said.