In Southeast Asia, going global used to mean picking the biggest market, that logic is already dead
Much of my work now involves helping companies decide where and how to grow across Asia, and connecting founders across the region. Expansion questions reach me often, and most people still bring the model I was handed years ago: rank the markets by size, enter the biggest one first, let the rest follow. Indonesia at […] The post In Southeast Asia, going global used to mean picking the biggest…
In Southeast Asia, the concept of expanding globally used to center around targeting the largest market. However, that logic has become obsolete. Recent developments indicate that companies now need to consider several critical factors before expanding into these markets.
In late 2023, Indonesia banned social platforms from directly handling transactions, a move intended to curb the growth of TikTok Shop. Instead, TikTok acquired the local platform Tokopedia and incorporated its e-commerce services. By 2026, TikTok's combined business now accounts for approximately 30% of the region's e-commerce, eclipsing Shopee's 48% market share.
In June 2026, Indonesia ordered major e-commerce players, including Shopee, TikTok Shop, and Lazada, to reduce platform service fees by at least half. This sudden change in economics disrupted the established market dynamics, forcing companies to rethink their strategies.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) describes the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) as operating in a fragmented world, with analysts expecting the region to split into tiers. Vietnam and Thailand are seen as adaptable economies, while Indonesia and Malaysia may pivot, while the smaller economies face potential setbacks.
The digital ecosystem is also splitting, with the World Trade Organisation (WTO) moratorium on e-commerce duties having expired, the United States opting out of the plurilateral e-commerce agreement, and ASEAN negotiating its own Digital Economy Framework Agreement. This fragmentation signals a shift in market dynamics, with no single digital rulebook governing the region.
To succeed in this evolving landscape, companies must now ask three key questions before entering a market: who owns the rails, and what are the risks associated with platform ownership changes? Can this strategy survive the differences in platforms, payment methods, and consent rules? Additionally, companies should consider whether they are building for the hub (like Singapore) or for the entire region.
While basing operations in Singapore is rational, it is crucial not to mistake it for the entirety of Southeast Asia. Adaptability remains the key to success, and companies must now decide whether they want to be a regional business or a collection of local entities sharing a name.
Written by urgent.news from e27's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
