Francesca Hong's Chances of Beating David Crowley in Wisconsin: Final Polls

Wisconsin's Democratic gubernatorial primary remains tightly contested as Republican David Crowley and Democratic candidate Francesca Hong face off. According to the final poll by State Navigate, Hong leads Crowley by a substantial 22-point margin, with 44% of likely Democratic primary voters backing her, while Crowley secures 22%.

In third place, state Sen. Kelda Roys holds 11%, while nonprofit executive Joel Brennan garners 5%. The poll, conducted from August 3 to 6 among 1,473 likely Democratic primary voters, boasts a margin of error of plus or minus 2.3 percentage points. Hong's commanding lead leaves Crowley with a steep uphill battle, despite the support of outgoing Governor Tony Evers.

Hong, a 37-year-old democratic socialist and former Madison lawmaker, emphasizes "permanent affordability" in her campaign, advocating for expanded child care, increased public-school funding, and higher taxes on wealthy residents and corporations. Crowley, the Milwaukee County Executive and a former Lt. Governor nominee, focuses on his governing experience and ability to build a broader electoral coalition, securing Evers' endorsement.

Hong's strength extends across all regions surveyed, including Milwaukee County, where she leads 57% to Crowley's 19%. Her strongest performance comes from Dane County, where she leads 57% to 19%. However, Hong's lead narrows to 8 points among supporters who voted in all previous primaries, highlighting the potential impact of voter turnout.

Prediction markets strongly favor Hong's victory, with Kalshi giving her a 94.9% chance of winning, while Polymarket shows a similar favorability at 95.8%. Despite her strong position, Hong's democratic socialist affiliation and past social media posts have drawn criticism from some Democrats, who argue her record could make it harder for the party to retain the governorship. The eventual nominee will face Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany in November.