Dan Sullivan Within Striking Distance of Mary Peltola in Alaska Senate Race

Dan Sullivan, Republican Senator from Alaska, narrowly trailed Democratic candidate Mary Peltola in the latest poll released on Tuesday. The race is a crucial battleground as Democrats aim to reclaim control of the Senate in the November midterms. However, they face a difficult map, requiring them to target more conservative states that previously backed President Donald Trump by double digits.

Peltola, who previously represented Alaska's at-large congressional district from 2022 to 2025, is considered a top recruit for Democrats. Alaska uses ranked-choice voting, where voters rank their preferred candidates. If no candidate wins an outright majority in the first round, the candidate with the lowest support is eliminated until a candidate surpasses 50 percent of the vote.

The new poll showed Peltola leading by 1.6 points, within the margin of error. Peltola's support stood at 50.8 percent, compared to Sullivan's 49.2 percent. The poll surveyed 1,371 likely voters from August 2-5, 2026. In contrast, a March poll showed Peltola leading by 4.8 points, 52.4 percent to 47.6 percent, and an April poll had her winning with 50.2 percent, compared to Sullivan's 43.6 percent.

Republican James Ryan received 6.2 percent in the April poll. Despite considerable investment to sway voter opinion in Alaska, opinion appears stable, according to Ivan Moore, founder of the poll. Peltola's campaign spokesperson emphasized that Alaskans are ready to "fire self-serving Dan Sullivan" and elect Peltola to put Alaska first in the Senate.

A separate poll from The New York Times and Siena University showed a 2-point lead for Sullivan in the initial round of ranked choice, with 47 percent supporting Sullivan, 45 percent Peltola, 5 percent undecided, and 2 percent voting for other candidates. Forecasts view the race as a toss-up, with no clear advantage for either party.