Burnham's Labour edges ahead of Reform UK in a YouGov poll for the first time

The Labour Party, led by British Prime Minister Andy Burnham, has recently overtook Reform UK in a YouGov poll conducted on August 9 and 10, according to The Times. This marks the first time this has occurred in the pollster's series since Reform UK took the lead earlier in 2025. The survey found Labour at 24%, two points above its August 3 reading, while Reform UK dropped one point to 22%.

The two-point gap falls within the sample's margin of error, making the change in position not statistically significant. Meanwhile, Kemi Badenoch's Conservative Party, the main opposition, rose two points to 21%, while the Greens fell one point to 12%, and the Liberal Democrats fell one point to 11%. All five parties remain above the 10% threshold, a consistent feature of Britain's political scene.

The recent trend shows a more erratic pattern than suggested by the latest figure alone. During Burnham's first week as Prime Minister, Labour and Reform UK were evenly matched at 22% each, and Reform UK had previously taken the lead in an August 3 poll over Labour at 23% to 22%. An earlier More in Common survey had already indicated Labour leading with 28% compared to 24% for Labour.

Burnham assumed office on July 20, replacing Keir Starmer, who resigned in June after Labour's poor performance in the May local and regional elections, where Reform UK made significant gains. Burnham's early focus was on cost-of-living measures, including a reduction in VAT on energy bills. YouGov's head of elections and political data, Patrick English, acknowledged Burnham's current lead in leader favourability ratings but pointed out that voters still doubt the government's ability to tackle cost of living and immigration concerns, and expect to see concrete improvements before Labour gains electoral support.

The poll was released two days before the Clacton by-election in southeast England, where Nigel Farage aims to reclaim his seat, which he vacated in July to trigger the vote following an investigation by the parliamentary standards commissioner into an alleged undeclared £5 million gift. The next general election must be held by August 2029 at the latest.