A hot day by 2100 may have extra 4 hours of extreme heat if high emissions continue: study
Extreme heat events are typically assessed using daily mean average, maximum, or minimum temperatures. However, the measures can neglect shorter but potentially important periods of extreme heat
By the end of the 21st century, a hot day could see an extra four hours of extreme heat if greenhouse gas emissions remain high, according to a new study. Researchers from China's Sun Yat-sen University and the Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory found that days exceeding 90% of the hottest previously measured days could gain an additional three hours of extreme heat.
Low and middle-income nations are projected to suffer the most, with over three-quarters of current and future heat exposure occurring in these countries. The study, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, emphasizes the importance of hourly assessments of heat exposure, as daily metrics may overlook crucial periods of extreme heat.
Global hourly data from 1981-2023, combined with future climate projections, revealed that land areas worldwide experience an average of 269 extreme heat hours during summer. On average, each decade saw 62 additional hours of extreme heat between 1981 and 2023, with 28% of these events occurring on days not classified as heat extremes by daily metrics.
Under a high-emissions scenario, the number of hourly heat extreme events could increase fourfold by late century, with a corresponding sixfold increase in population exposed to such events. The researchers suggest that future research should focus on the mechanisms behind hourly heat extremes, such as heat bursts or flash heat events, to improve early warning systems, health risk assessments, and climate adaptation strategies.
Written by urgent.news from The Hindu - Sci-Tech's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — it may contain errors, so check the original before relying on it.
