Ahead by 22%p, Hong…Will Wisconsin primaries become a ‘surprise close contest’ like Michigan?

The democratic primary race in Wisconsin, with a 22% lead for Democratic candidate Francesca Hong, could turn into a "surprise finish" similar to the one in Michigan, according to recent polling. Hong, a 37-year-old Korean-American woman, is currently leading Democratic gubernatorial candidates by double-digit margins in recent polls.

However, the margin between her and her closest competitor, David Crockell, the Milwaukee County administrative official, is only 22 percentage points. This tight race has raised concerns about the accuracy of polls, as the state's recent primary for state senators saw a significant discrepancy between poll predictions and actual results.

State Navigate's recent survey of 1,473 likely voters suggests that Hong could secure 44% of the vote, with 22% going to Crockell. Even among respondents who have already voted, Hong leads with 48% to Crockell's 14%. The margin of error is ±2.3 percentage points. However, assuming victory based on these numbers would be premature.

In Michigan, progressive candidate Atef Elsayed initially led polls by a wide margin, but his actual win was only by 1 percentage point. The State Navigate survey attributes this discrepancy to overestimation in surveys, including a higher response rate among older voters and underestimation of seniors aged 65 and above. State Navigate acknowledges that Hong's support might be more actively engaged in the survey than indicated.

Given that Hong has participated in all recent elections, the frequent vote cast by these loyal voters is only 8% higher than Crockell's, while the non-voting segment shows a significant 50% gap. The survey indicates that Hong's advantage may be overstated. The state's use of an open primary, where voters can choose between the Democratic and Republican primaries, benefits Hong.

With no party registration, voters can participate in one party's primary. This strategy could attract undecided Republican-leaning voters to the Democratic race, potentially making the contest closer than expected. Political science professor Mordechai Levy of the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee predicts on Fox News that cross-voting, where undecided voters lean older or moderate, could impact the outcome.

However, he notes that the younger, more progressive-leaning demographics tend to vote later. Therefore, if these voters lean towards Crockell, the race could become a closer contest. Democratic heavyweights Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez have not endorsed Hong, and some progressive insiders have raised concerns about her lack of appeal and competitive advantage in the general election.