Russia’s Odesa strikes halve Ukraine’s grain export forecast

Ukraine’s Agriculture Ministry has slashed its 2026–2027 agricultural export forecast by 54%, predicting only 29.6 million tons compared to the previous 64.4 million. The ministry’s wheat export forecast fell by an even steeper 53%, from 17.6 million tons to a mere 8.3 million tons. While Ukraine produces more grain than it consumes, exporting a substantial 65%–70% of its agricultural output, the sector generated over half of Ukraine’s export revenue last year.

However, Russian attacks on Odesa’s ports, which handle around 90% of the country’s grain shipments, have severely disrupted shipping, leaving Ukraine with a storage capacity that could fill up by early November and leaving a shortfall of 11 million tons by the end of fall 2026. The situation has put additional pressure on farmers, who are now receiving subsidized loans from the government.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has also pledged to expand storage capacity. The EU has offered to lend Ukraine €220 million to help cover interest on small and medium-sized farm loans. Despite these measures, Ukraine and Moldova are exploring a rail route to Romania’s Constanţa port, but they acknowledge that these alternative routes cannot replace Odesa’s capacity.

As Russia continues to target the ports and shipping vessels, the struggle to maintain Ukraine’s grain export corridors intensifies.