Russian plants are overfulfilling monthly missile production quotas by 110-120% and unlikely to pause strikes, HUR says

Ukraine's Defense Ministry intelligence directorate, HUR, reported that Russia launched 198 ballistic and hypersonic missiles at Ukraine in July, marking the highest monthly total in 2026. This production run exceeded the country's monthly plans for main missile types by 110-120%, and by August 3, Russia had already fulfilled its full-year plan for Tsirkon hypersonic and modernized Onyx missiles.

The launch rate has increased throughout the summer, with ballistic strikes rising steadily from 61 in April to 198 in July. The intervals between attacks have shortened, going from roughly once every ten days to weekly and tighter.

Russia's output for specific missile systems surpassed targets. For instance, the July plan for Kh-101 cruise missiles was met at 140%, Kalibr at 111%, and Kh-35 at 200%. Russia produced 87 Kalibrs but only planned 26. The country had about 130 9M723 ballistic missiles in stock for the Iskander-M, exceeding the monthly plan of 60, though July output reached 65. The RM-48U, a Mach 6 surface-to-surface missile, had a planned output of 40 units for August, with an estimated reserve of 400.

Russia has paused production of the Kinzhal and Kh-32 since April, redirecting resources to more effective missiles. The Kh-32 failed repeated attempts to improve accuracy and was returned to development, while the Kinzhal's accuracy problem persisted. Russia's August plan for strike drones across Geran, Gerbera, and Harpia families is 11,000 units.

However, production was delayed in July as plants retooled for turbojet Geran-4 and Geran-5, which require faster interceptors. Russia relies on China for turbojets, paying between $35,000 to $40,000 each, with efforts underway to develop its own engines.

The HUR report indicates that Russian strikes target Ukraine's defense-industrial complex, logistics, including railways, ports, and shipping, and civilian vessels in the Black Sea. This is a new approach, with civilian vessels deliberately targeted and destroyed to cut off Ukrainian trade. North Korea has transferred 40 more KN-23 and KN-24 missiles, although one recent missile drifted 15 kilometers off target and killed a family.

Iran's cooperation has diminished, with Russia developing its own strike and FPV drones. Moscow is also deploying the Rassvet, a Russian Starlink analog, with 16 satellites launched in March 2026, aiming for a constellation of 292 by 2027 and 924 by 2035. Skibitskyi believes a pause in missile launches is unlikely, as Russia's output largely determines the tempo.