Where will there be clouds during the eclipse? Check how the skies and horizon will be in each municipality
We show and update on a map several cloud forecasts for Wednesday, August 12: where there will be clouds, what type and in which direction to look.
Low clouds can become the worst enemy of someone who wants to see the eclipse on August 12. In the following map, we show the cloudiness forecast for 8 pm on Wednesday in each municipality and towards the horizon, in addition to the detail of cloud height in each location. The latest available forecast data are from Sunday, August 9; from tomorrow, Tuesday, you will also be able to consult the hour-by-hour forecast from AEMET.
Methodology of the map
The map shows a cloudiness forecast for the time of the eclipse at each point in Spain. The visible layer represents the total cloudiness forecast by the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), distributed by AEMET through CEPPM. Its approximate resolution is 5 kilometers. From Tuesday, the map will also incorporate HARMONIE-AROME, AEMET's high-resolution model.
Its grid, approximately 2.5 kilometers, allows you to consult the cloudiness forecast for specific hours with more local detail than the European medium-term model.
The information cards for each location combine two types of information. On the one hand, the total cloudiness forecast at that point by CEPPM, expressed in percentage intervals; and on the other, the average vertical structure of clouds in the municipality according to AIFS, the artificial intelligence model of ECMWF, with an approximate resolution of 25 kilometers (it distinguishes between low, medium, and high clouds).
The classification of conditions —favorable, regular, or unfavorable— combines the total cloudiness of the point with the proportion of low, medium, and high clouds forecast over the municipality. The calculation gives more weight to low clouds, an intermediate weight to medium clouds, and less weight to high clouds. The municipal card does not add the three layers of AIFS: low, medium, and high clouds can coexist at different heights.
They are shown as a description of the expected vertical structure, not as mutually exclusive parts of the same 100%.
The "View to the horizon" mode is a complementary estimate. It calculates the direction and height of the Sun at the local maximum of the eclipse and takes three samples of low cloud AIFS in the line of sight, at approximate heights of between 1 and 2 kilometers. It shows the most cloudy scenario of those samples. It is an orientation on possible clouds between the observer and the Sun, not a detailed prediction of the relief or exact visibility.
Translated by urgent.news. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
