AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Minnesota’s state primary

Minnesota Democrats will determine the outcome of a fiercely contested U.S. Senate primary on Tuesday, featuring a clash between moderate and progressive candidates that may shape the party's direction ahead of the midterm elections. Republicans are also selecting nominees, hoping to finally win a statewide election in the state, which has been a focal point of President Donald Trump's second term.

Following President Trump's second term, Minnesota has been embroiled in a political ordeal, with the Republican president targeting Minnesota and its Democratic leaders heavily. An ongoing investigation into state childcare programs has led Democratic Governor Tim Walz to withdraw from his reelection campaign, making it a frequent subject among Republican candidates.

The Trump administration's immigration crackdown, resulting in the deaths of two U.S. citizens, has become a defining issue for Democratic candidates. The retirement of both Governor Walz and Democratic U.S. Senator Tina Smith has caused a reorganization of races across the ballot. In the contest to succeed Smith, U.S. Representative Angie Craig and Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan are the frontrunners for the Democratic nomination.

Smith has endorsed Flanagan, while Walz has not endorsed anyone. Flanagan has the backing of influential progressive figures, including U.S. Senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, as well as U.S. Representative Ilhan Omar. Sanders, an independent, caucuses with Democrats. Craig's primary supporters are Minnesota's first lady, Gwen Walz, House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and former U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.

Craig has approximately doubled Flanagan's overall fundraising, and as of late July, she had about $3.6 million available to spend, compared to Flanagan's approximately $1.1 million.