Trump is betting that the U.S. naval blockade choking Iran’s economy can achieve what bombs and missiles couldn’t as more oil sneaks out of the Gulf

President Donald Trump is relying on a U.S. naval blockade of Iran to force economic concessions, despite the strategy failing to achieve its objectives through military action. In an interview with Axios, Trump expressed confidence that the regime's collapsing economy, marked by high inflation and depleted funds, will give the U.S. leverage.

He claimed that Iran cannot pay its troops and described its economy as "very bad shape." The U.S. naval blockade has exacerbated the economic crisis, contrasting with the relative ease of strain on the American public due to falling oil prices. Iran and Oman have been negotiating to manage traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, but an agreement does not automatically reopen the waterway.

Iran insists on several demands before considering reopening the strait, including the lifting of the naval blockade, ending sanctions, and paying war reparations. Despite Iran's insistence, anxiety persists due to inflation and currency crashes, leading to nationwide protests that have been met with brutal crackdowns. Regime moderates are growing concerned that the naval blockade is bringing Iran's economy close to collapse, with the deputy foreign minister admitting that sanctions relief through a deal with the U.S. could provide much-needed assistance.

As both sides blame each other for dishonesty and untrustworthiness, Trump appears hopeful about a deal, viewing it as a chess game. The absence of war might aid Trump's purposes, as fighting allowed the Iranian regime to avoid addressing its economic crisis. However, dwindling oil inventories could test Trump's patience with a looming supply crunch, spiking energy prices again.