What could the Mecca defence pact mean for the US role in the Middle East?

Israel's potential peace with Saudi Arabia, as part of the Abraham Accords, is a significant diplomatic achievement that could reshape the Middle East. However, granting Saudi Arabia the ability to develop its own uranium enrichment capabilities raises serious concerns for Israel. Normalization with Saudi Arabia could open new trade routes and strengthen the moderate camp against Iran, providing Israel unprecedented legitimacy in the region.

But allowing Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium independently could lead to a nuclear arms race in the Middle East.

Saudi Arabia's desire to build nuclear reactors for energy production is understandable, as many countries operate such reactors and the kingdom aims to diversify its energy sources. Nevertheless, uranium enrichment is unnecessary for operating nuclear power plants, which can be purchased from other countries. The key issue is the sensitive component of the nuclear fuel cycle, as the technology used for enrichment can also be used to produce fissile material for nuclear weapons.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has publicly stated that if Iran acquires a nuclear weapon, Saudi Arabia will also need to acquire one. Following tensions with Iran, it would be challenging to justify why an enrichment capability considered dangerous in Iran should be considered legitimate for Saudi Arabia.

If the US allows one Middle Eastern country to enrich uranium, what is stopping others from following suit? The potential domino effect could be significant. Other countries like Turkey and Egypt, which are already building nuclear reactors, may seek similar capabilities if given approval by the US.

The real danger lies in the Saudi precedent, as it could lead to a race among regional powers to possess nuclear infrastructure, even if they do not openly declare intentions to build nuclear weapons. This could transform the Middle East into a system of mutual suspicion, where any regional crisis could escalate into a nuclear dimension.

Israel must make clear its stance, including to the US, emphasizing the importance of a Saudi civilian nuclear program with strict international oversight, similar to the UAE's approach. While peace with Saudi Arabia offers strategic benefits, including strengthening Israel's economy and deepening Iran's regional isolation, the potential nuclear arms race poses an even greater danger. It is crucial for Israel to maintain vigilance and prevent the emergence of multiple nuclear threshold states in the region.