The Middle East needs peace deals that stick

The Middle East is experiencing a recurring pattern where diplomatic frameworks and negotiations falter due to mistrust and competing agendas. Recent developments include potential agreements to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restart a 60-day ceasefire between the US and Iran, but the hope is tempered by the fact that such agreements often fail to materialize or endure.

This situation is causing economic uncertainty, particularly for Gulf countries whose security and economies rely heavily on Hormuz. While some Gulf nations are diversifying their trade routes to mitigate this risk, others continue to face challenges in achieving stable diplomatic outcomes. The credibility of any new Hormuz agreement is under scrutiny, given Iran's history of coercion rather than peaceful negotiation.

Meanwhile, the US has struggled to settle the underlying dispute, leading to a reliance on temporary mechanisms rather than substantive change. Despite the need for immediate crisis management, the Gulf countries are no longer content with false dawns and are seeking more enduring stability. For any peace deal to truly matter, it must go beyond temporary cessation of hostilities, addressing the root causes of conflict to prevent further disruption.