Gold heads for biggest weekly gain since January ahead of US jobs data

Gold prices surged on Friday, edging closer to their largest weekly increase since January. The uptick was fueled by a dip in oil prices and anticipation of U.S. nonfarm payrolls data, which could offer insight into the interest rate outlook. Spot gold rose 0.4% to $4,254.11 per ounce, after peaking at a seven-week high the previous day.

The surge came as investors anticipated peace in the Middle East, which lowered inflation expectations and facilitated gold's rise from a multi-week consolidation above $4,000, according to Matt Simpson, a senior analyst at StoneX. U.S. President Donald Trump shared optimism, stating he believed the conflict with Iran would conclude soon and citing supply issues with certain weapons.

Oil prices were projected to experience a weekly decline. Lower energy costs help alleviate inflation worries and diminish the likelihood of enduring interest rate hikes, which makes gold an attractive hedge against inflation. Market participants prepared for the U.S. Labor Department's nonfarm payrolls report for July, set to be released at 12:30 GMT.

Despite the potential impact of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, analysts believe the $4,000 level provides a strong support base, and bulls are awaiting dips to capitalize on a well-deserved correction towards $4,600. The probability of a U.S. rate increase in September dropped slightly, from 63% a week ago to 55%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem expressed support for a modest increase in short-term borrowing costs, citing the preference for gradual, incremental rate hikes over potentially disruptive and costly abrupt changes. Silver, platinum, and palladium all posted weekly gains, closing higher at $61.96, $1,735.71, and $1,367.06 per ounce, respectively.