Is the US in danger of rushing into a deal that gives Iran too much?

The United States is reportedly nearing an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route, within the next 48 hours, according to President Donald Trump. This development has raised concerns about whether the US is moving too hastily in negotiations. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that a deal could be reached "today or tomorrow" and would guarantee "freedom of movement" for commercial shipping without introducing a toll system.

Iran, however, claims the US has no role in the deal, which it is negotiating with Oman. The Trump administration is believed to be in contact with the Omanis and exerting influence over the talks. The proposed framework could give Iran significant influence over the strait, potentially allowing it to block vessels it opposes. The new agreement would replace the current two-lane system with a single shared corridor, potentially shifting the balance of power in the strait.

This development comes amid a volatile security situation, including an attack on a vessel off Oman's coast. While most states rely on the strait for commerce, any new deal must include clear rules, independent oversight, and enforcement mechanisms to prevent selective restrictions. The Gulf Arab states are eager to see any agreement explicitly address the division of authority in the strait.