Tens of millions lost monthly as Ukraine’s seaport shutdown hits metallurgy

Ukrainian mining and metallurgical companies stand to lose between $700 million and $800 million annually due to Russia's blockade of Ukraine's Black Sea ports, according to industry analysts. Stanislav Zinchenko, CEO of GMK Center consultancy, explained that iron ore concentrate shipments to China account for about 50% of the industry's exports.

This blockade has jeopardized roughly half of Ukraine's iron-ore exports, which amounts to approximately 1 million tons per month. GMK Center predicts that export revenue losses from reduced iron-ore shipments could range from $60 million to $70 million monthly, totaling $700 million to $800 million yearly. The iron-ore sector may see a 40% output decline, partly because sea-based steel shipments have also been hindered.

Zinchenko emphasized that a rapid recovery is unlikely, citing the need for at least three to four months following the initial successful maritime passage in 2023. He also suggested that political solutions are essential, deeming military measures insufficient for ensuring safe and consistent vessel passage. GMK Center does not anticipate the resumption of iron ore sea exports as long as Ukraine's Black Sea ports remain closed.