New Gaza peace plan: Will US pressure Israel to accede?

On October 7, 2023, Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel, killing over 1,000 people and sparking a prolonged Israeli military campaign in Gaza. Since then, the situation in Gaza has remained tense, with Israel refusing to withdraw troops until Hamas disarmed—a demand Hamas had previously rejected. Recently, however, Hamas agreed to disarm and transfer power to an independent group, the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, in a new 15-point peace plan.

The deal, while more detailed than previous agreements, has been met with resistance from Israel. The Israeli government claims the plan does not reflect their positions, and far-right politicians have dismissed it. With Israeli elections approaching in less than 90 days, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is desperate to avoid concessions that could lead to public backlash and political fallout.

Experts argue that the US, under President Donald Trump, may be able to pressure Israel to accept the peace deal. Trump has taken unprecedented steps, such as releasing the plan without showing it to Israel first and offering off-the-record briefings to suggest he would be disappointed if Israel does not comply. Despite these efforts, it remains unclear if the US is willing to impose significant costs on the US-Israeli relationship to secure compliance.