NASA’s PUNCH Sharpens Solar Storm Forecasting in First Test
Using continuous imagery from NASA’s PUNCH (Polarimeter to Unify the Corona and Heliosphere) mission, scientists predicted the near-Earth arrival of a solar eruption to within 30 minutes in an initial proof of concept test. The results, presented Tuesday at the Committee on Space Research Scientific Meeting and under review at the journal Space Weather, could […]
NASA’s PUNCH mission achieved a significant breakthrough in solar storm forecasting with its initial test. The mission, led by the Southwest Research Institute and managed by NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, deployed four spacecraft in low Earth orbit to track solar eruptions continuously. PUNCH’s unprecedented wide-field imagery allowed scientists to observe a coronal mass ejection (CME) on May 31, 2025, nearly all the way to Earth, providing real-time data for forecasting.
Traditionally, CMEs could only be tracked for one-fifth of their journey, leaving scientists guessing about their path over the remaining distance. This limited their ability to predict when a storm would reach Earth, typically providing only a five-hour window for alerts. However, PUNCH’s continuous observations enabled scientists to track the May 31 CME with high resolution, capturing new structures and revealing that the material within the ejection was more clumpy than previously thought.
Using retroactive data from this CME, scientists input images into a computer model that analyzed the leading edge of the CME over time. By tracking the CME’s speed and geometry, the model calculated that the storm would arrive at Earth eight hours after its departure from the Sun. This prediction was accurate within 30 minutes of the actual arrival time, a tenfold improvement over current forecasting methods that only provide a five-hour window.
Craig DeForest, principal investigator for PUNCH, emphasized the transformative impact of this test, likening it to advancing from a steam engine to an internal combustion engine in space weather forecasting. The model also provided a stabilization point, allowing forecasters to predict the arrival time with confidence. Beyond improving storm predictions, PUNCH data is revealing new insights into the clumpiness of CMEs and the movement of plasma, the solar material launched by these explosions, which can enhance our understanding of plasma behavior across the galaxy.
Written by urgent.news from NASA's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
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