Kerjasama politik berasaskan ‘musuh bersama’ tak mampu tahan lama

Malaysia's political landscape has become increasingly fragmented, leading to a dynamic and unpredictable environment where alliances turn into enemies, and then back into allies against the same foes. However, political analyst Asrul Sani stated that a political partnership built solely to fight a common 'enemy' is insufficient to withstand long-term stability, including the recently formed alliance between Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN).

He told FMT that opposing Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and Pakatan Harapan (PH), especially DAP, is expected to remain a central theme leading up to PRU16. "Umno, PAS, and other non-government parties still have differences in leadership, ideology, constituencies, and individual roles within any future government." He added that tensions will resurface as soon as the shared goal of defeating Anwar is achieved.

For a more sustainable partnership, pragmatic consensus is needed, given that PRU16 may produce a hung Parliament once again. A contract like the Confidence and Supply Agreement (CSA) should include clear commitments in return for the support of involved parties, similar to the reformist pledge between PH and the government led by Ismail Sabri Yaakob in 2021.

Sani believes that the rakyat consultations during the election will matter less than cooperation after the election, with political dialogue forming the basis of that cooperation. In this context, he believes that the confidence and supply agreement will become increasingly relevant to ensure political stability, with Sarawak potentially gaining the most significant benefit.

"Even if Umno and PAS win a majority of Malay seats, they may still fail to achieve the 112 seats needed to form a government." Therefore, they need to offer a minimum basic program and clear commitments to the Sarawak Initiative (GPS) and others regarding the importance of Sarawak. GPS can support the coalition government while receiving commitments on land allocation, greater autonomy, implementation of the Malaysia Agreement 1963 (MA63), and control over state resources while maintaining political distance from mainland parties.

The unity and enmity of PH, BN, GPS, and the Sarawak Initiative (GRS) have alternated as allies in the federal government after the inconclusive PRU15 in 2022. However, BN and PN have contested together in the Negeri Sembilan state election, followed by the formation of a new state government with a two-thirds majority through 25 seats.

Umno and PAS previously cooperated through the National Accord (MN), but that partnership ended after PAS formed PN with Bersatu in 2020. Now, Bersatu is nearly set to leave PN following a dispute with PAS and its new leader Hamzah Zainudin, who now heads Wawasan after being expelled from PH in February. PH was formerly part of Bersatu but left the alliance in February 2020, contributing to the fall of the PH government at that time.

The GPS, formed by Umno and PAS cooperations, has fueled speculation about its continuation during PRU16, while some within PH have urged BN to withdraw from the government. Umno-PAS cooperation is viewed as a "simple calculation" by analyst Wong Chin Huat, who notes that Malaysia's politics now features a three-way competition between BN, PN, and PH, with PH increasingly losing support.

"When one side is deteriorating, the other two have strong incentives to unite and divide the influence of that side," he said, adding that if PH experiences a noticeable decline, BN and PN may maintain their cooperation in regional elections and PRU16. However, Wong believes that Umno and PAS do not truly trust each other, despite their frequent rhetoric of uniting Malay-Islam, and both are expected to compete again if they win a landslide victory in the upcoming election to secure the majority of Malay support.