The fantasy of toppling Middle Eastern regimes is a familiar pattern in Israeli policy - opinion
History suggests Israel's alleged regime change plan for Iran repeated flawed assumptions that have doomed similar interventions before.
The report detailing Israel's alleged plan to topple Iran's regime, spearheaded by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has drawn attention. In its most basic form, the strategy appears audacious and echoes past Mossad endeavors, from stealing Iran's nuclear documents to assassinating nuclear scientists. However, a deeper examination reveals significant flaws in this audacious plan.
Firstly, the notion that Kurdish forces could incite a revolution in Iranian Kurdistan and prompt other factions to rise against the regime is highly questionable. Even with military aid, it is improbable that a non-Persian minority, lacking widespread support, could gain nationwide backing. Syria offers a contrasting case, where Ahmed al-Sharaa, despite his jihadist background, succeeded after Syria's regime was already weakened by civil war.
Israel, meanwhile, has struggled with Kurdish allies in the past, failing to secure Iraqi forces during wars in 1967 and 1973.
Secondly, the plan's reliance on Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as a central figure is equally perplexing. While some claim Ahmadinejad's views have evolved, his capacity to mobilize substantial segments of Iranian society remains doubtful. Moreover, depending on one individual's influence poses substantial risks, as demonstrated by the assassination of Lebanese President Bashir Gemayel, which shattered Israel's attempts to establish a friendly regime in Lebanon.
The current situation bears a striking resemblance to events in Lebanon in 1982. In both scenarios, Mossad initiated the plan, defying opposition from military and intelligence circles. In Lebanon, Maronites, a minority within their own country, were perceived as unreliable, ultimately failing to provide the anticipated support during the conflict. In Iran, Netanyahu's strategy mirrors Sharon's in Lebanon, anticipating a single military campaign to reshape the Middle East.
Historically, Israel's involvement in Iran has been far from unprecedented. Israel's regional policy since its founding has included numerous interventions in neighboring countries, each driven by distinct strategic goals. These interventions have aimed to rescue friendly regimes, undermine hostile ones, neutralize threats, or even occupy territories. From the rescue of Jordan's King Hussein in 1970 to the attempted overthrow of Nasser in 1956, Israel has exhibited a consistent pattern of meddling in regional affairs.
Written by urgent.news from Jerusalem Post's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
