INTERVIEW - Nvidia und Anthropic machen die Börse nervös – ein 3600-Milliarden-Fonds-Chef gibt Entwarnung: «Die Umsätze sind sehr real»

Mike Gitlin, CEO of the Capital Group, argues that comparisons to the 2008 financial crisis are unfounded, and defends the active portfolio management against its critics. He notes that while the Nasdaq has seen a turbulent week, Nvidia's value loss following its CEO's resignation is significant, but the company still maintains a market capitalization of about $4 trillion.

Gitlin emphasizes that Nvidia's stock shares similarities with other AI-related stocks, which are experiencing a period of correction and revaluation and are now 20 to 30 percent below their peak levels.

Regarding Anthropic, a recent AI startup set to go public, Gitlin explains that the company's valuation of $1.4 trillion leads him to believe that a portfolio manager would likely invest, despite not being able to confirm this at the moment. He contrasts Anthropic's business model with those from the dot-com bubble, highlighting its strong revenue.

Gitlin acknowledges the high volatility in the stock markets in recent weeks, attributing it to phases of correction in emerging technologies. He notes that while some hyperscalers have increased debt and invested in more computing power, others are still new and need to prove themselves. He stresses the importance of fundamental analysis in this phase, urging investors to examine the balance sheet closely and understand the company's financing structure and associated risks.

He denies any parallels with the pre-2008 financial crisis, drawing comparisons to the 1970s and 1980s when individual sectors or countries dominated the markets. Gitlin points out that semiconductor stocks now make up around 20 percent of the S&P 500, a far cry from their 30 percent dominance in the 1970s and 45 percent during Japan's economic bubble.

Gitlin comments on the increasing Democratic control in the US Congress, asserting that the American stock market is indifferent to the political party in power. He notes that despite long-term government shifts, the market's average returns show minimal differences between Democratic and Republican administrations.

Gitlin mentions the growing US government debt and rising capital market interest rates, questioning the sustainability of this situation. He argues that while absolute debt figures don't tell the whole story, they should be viewed in relation to the economy's size, growth dynamics, and budget deficit. He acknowledges that interest rates on government bonds are not exceptionally high, but still offers investors meaningful returns.

Lastly, Gitlin expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to a neutral level by the end of 2027, expecting only one or two hikes in the coming months. He believes that inflation may have already peaked, potentially falling to around 2 percent, following a drop in oil prices.