Fitch expects UAE GDP to rise in 2026 and maintains high-grade credit rating

Fitch Ratings expects the United Arab Emirates' economy to grow in 2026, maintaining the country's high-grade credit rating. The agency cited resilient fiscal buffers as a reason for the positive outlook. While real gross domestic product in the Arab world's second-largest economy is projected to grow by 0.5 percent this year, non-oil GDP is expected to contract by 1.5 percent.

Dubai's real GDP is anticipated to stay below its 2025 level, as it recovers from the impact of the Iran war. The emirate's economy contracted 2.3 percent in the first half of 2026, reaching Dh473 billion ($128.8 billion), compared to the previous year.

Hydrocarbon GDP is expected to rise by approximately 7 percent in 2026, with a significant spike of 26 percent in the following year as oil production is no longer bound by OPEC+ quotas. Fitch maintains the UAE's sovereign credit rating at AA-, with a stable outlook, highlighting low consolidated government debt, a strong net external asset position, and high GDP per capita.

The UAE benefits from Abu Dhabi's sovereign net foreign assets, which constitute about 180 percent of UAE GDP in 2026, among the highest of Fitch-rated sovereigns.

Fitch expects all the emirates to implement recovery programs, but the non-oil trend growth will be below pre-war levels over the forecast period. The agency also praised Abu Dhabi's export revenues for being higher compared to pre-war forecasts, driven by elevated crude prices and increased export volumes through pipeline to Fujairah and the Strait of Hormuz.