Fitch expects UAE GDP to rise in 2026 and maintains high-grade credit rating
Fitch Ratings is expecting the UAE's economy to rise in 2026 as it maintained the country's high-grade credit rating, citing resilient fiscal buffers. Real gross domestic product in the Arab world's second largest economy would grow by 0.5 per cent this year, despite an estimated 1.5 per cent contraction in non-oil GDP, the New York-based agency said on Friday. Analysts at Fitch said Dubai's real…
Fitch Ratings anticipates a rise in the UAE's GDP for 2026, maintaining the country's high-grade credit rating. Despite a projected 1.5% contraction in non-oil GDP, the Arab world's second-largest economy is expected to grow by 0.5% this year. Dubai's real GDP is anticipated to remain below its 2025 level as it continues to recover from the impact of the Iran war.
Hydrocarbon GDP is expected to increase by about 7% in 2026, then surge by 26% the following year as Opec+ quotas no longer constrain oil production. Fitch has also retained the UAE's sovereign credit rating at AA-, with a stable outlook, reflecting low consolidated government debt, a strong net external asset position, and high GDP per capita.
The emirate benefits from Abu Dhabi's sovereign net foreign assets, which are among the highest of Fitch-rated sovereigns. The stable outlook is due to the demonstrated resilience of oil export revenues during the Iran war, abundant fiscal and external buffers, and the expectation that individual emirates will bear the war's cost rather than the federal government.
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