ASEAN unity faces test as energy crisis, regional conflicts loom over summit

Southeast Asian foreign ministers convene in Manila this weekend as ASEAN seeks unity amid mounting energy crises, regional tensions, and an impending El Niño. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. emphasized the bloc's need for collective action to tackle surging oil prices, security concerns, and the approaching climatic phenomenon.

The Philippines will chair the meetings, which mark the beginning of a weekend-long diplomatic summit culminating on November 15-17, during which ASEAN leaders will engage with counterparts from major powers like the United States, China, and Japan.

The gathering comes as Southeast Asian nations grapple with higher fuel costs, exacerbating inflation and squeezing households and businesses. The crisis underscores the limitations of regional energy security, with proposals for a shared oil stockpile still under consideration. Additionally, the Asia Zero Emission Community summit, a Japan-led framework aimed at energy security, economic growth, and decarbonization, is scheduled to take place the following week.

US President Donald Trump, attending the summit, expressed reluctance to order military strikes on Iran, citing concerns from countries like Qatar. However, the possibility of renewed military action and oil supply disruptions remains a worry for fuel-importing countries. Ordinary Filipinos have felt the immediate impact of the conflict, with jeepney driver Lito Albino lamenting the additional burden of longer working hours and lower wages on the population. He emphasized that wars disproportionately affect the poor and marginalized.

Myanmar's precarious situation will also be under scrutiny, as ASEAN members assess their ability to uphold a common position amidst the military's 2021 coup, civil war, and attendant humanitarian crisis. Leaders are expected to review the implementation of the bloc's five-point consensus and draft a negotiated document reflecting their decisions. The South China Sea will feature prominently in discussions with China, where negotiations on a long-delayed Code of Conduct are about 70 percent complete.

Beyond diplomatic proceedings, Trump's visit is anticipated to draw protests from workers, students, and left-wing groups, advocating for an end to the Middle East conflict and the scrapping of the US-led Pax Silica. Myanmar will be another focal point of demonstrations, with activists demanding ASEAN's continued exclusion of coup leader-turned-president Min Aung Hlaing from summit proceedings.

Myanmar's turmoil since the military's seizure of power in 2021 has resulted in an estimated 100,000 deaths and the displacement of over 3.5 million people, with support from China, India, and Russia for Hlaing's administration.