Can India bridge trade gap with Southeast Asia as PM Modi heads to Manila for ASEAN amid China’s growing clout?

India is striving to deepen economic ties with Southeast Asia as Prime Minister Narendra Modi embarks on a visit to Manila for the 23rd ASEAN-India Summit. However, the country confronts persistent challenges, including a widening trade deficit with the region and China's growing influence in regional supply chains. Modi will attend the 23rd ASEAN-India Summit and the 21st East Asia Summit from November 16 to 18.

While India's trade with ASEAN has grown to $128 billion in 2025-26, the trade deficit remains significant, with imports from the 11-member grouping surpassing India's exports by over $45 billion. Analysts warn that narrowing this deficit will prove challenging in the short term, as many ASEAN production networks rely on Chinese components and intermediate goods.

To address this imbalance, India must diversify its supply chains and boost export competitiveness through sustained efforts. During the summit, leaders will review progress under the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and discuss future cooperation. Tandon, Secretary (East) in the Ministry of External Affairs, emphasizes the importance of deeper engagement between India and ASEAN to build resilience amid geopolitical changes.

However, translating political ties into a more balanced trading relationship remains a difficult task for New Delhi, which must also focus on strengthening domestic manufacturing and becoming a more competitive participant in a region dominated by China's economic influence.