No – Trump, Xi and Putin are not about to divide the world between them

Next week, Chinese President Xi Jinping, US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are expected to meet informally at the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation summit in Shenzhen. The possibility of this "historic" trilateral encounter has been likened to the 1945 Yalta conference, in which the leaders of Britain, the United States and the Soviet Union discussed the post-World War II European order.

However, this comparison is seen as alarmist, as the current geopolitical landscape is vastly different from the one that existed in 1945. While the three leaders are indeed influential, the rise of middle powers and alliances of smaller states has led to increasing multipolarity, limiting their ability to divide the world as Stalin did after Yalta.

The US and Russian presidents have not had their way in recent years, with Trump's preferred candidate losing the Brazilian presidential election and Putin's intervention in Ukraine failing to achieve its intended outcome. Furthermore, China has consistently emphasized its peaceful rise and remains at peace since 1979. The possibility of these leaders engaging in nuclear disarmament negotiations or discussing Ukraine remains unlikely, as China is not inclined to join such discussions at this stage and Germany's President Steinmeier emphasized the European nature of the conflict.

Instead of focusing on a potentially negative outcome, the meeting could yield positive results in areas such as AI governance or de-escalating tensions with Iran. While the likelihood of the meeting occurring is uncertain, the potential for a Track 1.5 or Track 2 dialogue among scholars, officials and civil society actors from the US, China and Russia could lead to valuable mutual understanding and cooperation, far removed from the geopolitical stakes of 1945.