Analysts see tight race in 7 hot seats

Analysts anticipate a tight race in seven key seats during the upcoming Melaka state election. In these closely contested districts, where voters have a more balanced racial composition, the Barisan Nasional-Perikatan Nasional alliance is expected to prevail by garnering Malay votes. Seven constituencies, previously won by various parties, are currently in play.

The most contentious of these seats is Bukit Katil, where incumbent Adly Zahari faces three contenders. Adly, the deputy defence minister, won the 2021 election with a narrow 1,057-vote majority. However, this time, the BN-PN alliance's influence is anticipated to boost his chances, while opposition parties like Bersama also field a candidate.

Ayer Keroh, a traditionally DAP-held constituency, has become increasingly diverse with 46% of voters being Chinese and 44% Malay. The party has held this seat since 2008, and Kerk Chee Yee's 5,624-vote majority in 2021 could be vulnerable if Malay votes unify under BN-PN. However, a split vote between PH and Bersatu could help DAP.

Paya Rumput, another BN stronghold, has switched hands between PH and BN in the last two elections. PH candidate Azman Abidin, the federal territories chief and Anwar Ibrahim's political secretary, is contesting this time around. BN has supported PN candidate Rafie Ahmad, who benefits from Lim Ban Hong's popularity.

Kesidang, another DAP stronghold with 54% Chinese and 38.5% Malay voters, could face challenges due to a potential drop in Chinese voter turnout. Incumbent Allex Seah, who won by 10,237 votes in 2021, is likely to face a tough challenge from PN candidate Albert Kok, who plans to capitalize on a Malay vote surge.

Pengkalan Batu's seat dynamics shifted when BN chose to field Siti Aisyah Mahmood, deputy chief of the Wanita Umno division, over incumbent Kalsom Noordin. Malays, who constitute 64% of the electorate, could influence the outcome, as BN and PN parties are united behind the candidate.

Finally, in Bemban, the PN party's Dr Yadzil Yaakub, formerly a state opposition leader, is seeking a third term with PN backing. Although the incumbent, Dr Yadzil, won by only 328 votes in 2021, he is expected to have an edge over his rivals from Bersatu, Bersama, and the independent candidate.