Analysts see tight race in 7 hot seats

As the 16th Melaka state election approaches, seven seats are expected to see close contests between the Barisan Nasional-Perikatan Nasional alliance and the Pakatan Harapan-Bersatu pact. The BN-PN partnership is anticipated to consolidate Malay votes, converting slim victories into landslide wins in most of these constituencies. Experts share similar views on the likely winners, focusing on constituencies with a more evenly mixed racial composition previously won by PH, BN or PN.

In Bukit Katil, the race is closely watched, with former chief minister Adly Zahari facing three opponents. The majority of 1,057 votes he won in the 2021 polls may not be enough to secure his third term, as the BN-PN alliance could influence the outcome. In Ayer Keroh, the Chinese make up the largest racial group, and the potential unification of Malay votes under BN-PN could lead to DAP's defeat.

Paya Rumput, traditionally a BN stronghold, is now being contested by PH's federal territories chief Azman Abidin. However, BN has placed PN's Rafie Ahmad as a competitor, with Malays constituting 62% of the electorate.

Kesidang, another DAP stronghold, has a fairly mixed racial composition, with Chinese accounting for 54% and Malays making up 38.5%. Incumbent Allex Seah won with a huge majority in 2021, but a low Chinese voter turnout and a Malay vote consolidation could cost DAP the seat. Pengkalan Batu, originally won by BN, is now contested by PN's Siti Aisyah Mahmood, who previously served as the state Wanita Umno chief.

Finally, in Kelebang, PH and Bersatu face off against Lim Ban Hong from MCA, with three other candidates vying for the seat. Malays make up 68.5% of the electorate, and Lim hopes to capitalize on the situation.