US dollar holds onto payrolls gains, NZ dollar rises after election

New Zealand's currency rose 0.4% to US$0.5557 on Monday, after hitting a low of US$0.5529 at the end of last week. The US dollar remained close to a 1-1/2-year peak versus the euro and a seven-month peak versus the Australian dollar, following a surge on Friday as solid US jobs data increased expectations for higher interest rates.

New Zealand's dollar rebounded from a seven-month low following a close election, although the outcome will not be known until late November as vote counting continues. The US dollar index was stable at 102.20 on Monday, after increasing by around 0.7% on Friday due to accelerated US jobs growth and a fall in unemployment. The euro climbed slightly to US$1.11485, after falling 0.7% on Friday and nearing its weakest point since May 2025.

The Australian dollar added 0.3% to US$0.6875, after falling over 1% on Friday to its lowest since March 31. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated in Friday that the central bank expects inflation to remain near its 2% target, acknowledging some upside risks. FedWatch data suggests a 79% probability of a US Federal Reserve rate hike on December 9, up from 71% the previous week.

Despite concerns about AI regulation and lower CAPEX due to the recent Blue Sweep election results in the US, economic indicators continue to surprise positively, maintaining the dollar's attractiveness. Fed officials' comments on Friday bolstered the case for a rate increase. New York Fed President John Williams emphasized the resilience of US economic growth amid successive shocks, while St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem and Fed Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly stressed the ongoing importance of inflation control.