UN warns 2027 could break global temperature record as El Niño intensifies

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), a UN specialised agency tasked with weather, climate, and water matters, has issued a dire warning that 2027 may shatter global temperature records. This ominous prediction stems from an intensifying El Niño phenomenon, which has the potential to exacerbate the risk of extreme weather events worldwide.

The WMO's cautionary statement surfaced alongside the release of their State of the Climate Update 2026 on November 9, as global leaders convened for the 31st United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP31) in Antalya, Türkiye. According to the WMO, the developing El Niño is anticipated to become the most powerful on record by December, with its warming impact expected to be most pronounced in 2027.

The organisation reported that 2026 will join the ranks of the four warmest years ever recorded, with global average surface temperatures between January and September hovering around 1.47°C above the pre-industrial benchmark. El Niño typically raises annual global average temperatures by 0.1°C to 0.2°C, its most significant influence often manifesting in the year following its development.

The WMO emphasized the critical importance of continuous climate monitoring, dependable forecasts, and early warning systems to aid nations in preparing for the growing severity of weather conditions. The agency noted that the count of countries boasting multi-hazard early warning systems surged from 56 in 2015 to 136 in 2025, underscoring advancements in global climate preparedness.

António Guterres, the UN Secretary-General, urged world leaders to expedite climate action, particularly by reducing emissions and bolstering support for vulnerable nations. The looming El Niño arrives amidst mounting apprehensions about its potential impact on Nigeria's electricity supply, infrastructure, and vulnerable communities.

In July 2026, Nairametrics highlighted recurring flooding in Lagos, attributing the city's heightened vulnerability to heavy rainfall to factors such as the loss of wetlands, rapid urbanization, and insufficient flood-control infrastructure.