Ukraine talks to focus on security guarantees as doubts persist over breakthrough

Negotiations between the United States, Russia and Ukraine are set to commence in Abu Dhabi, with a particular focus on security assurances. The two-day talks, marking the first since February, will also address de-escalation, humanitarian concerns and the potential for broader settlement. American envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Donald Trump's son-in-law, will spearhead the American delegation.

The discussions involve representatives from Ukraine, the European Union, NATO, Germany, France, Britain and Italy.

Officials anticipate a substantial deliberation on security guarantees, as well as the long-term security framework between Russia and Europe to minimize future conflicts. The US official expressed optimism, stating, "I do believe that now we're in a position where there is a shot at trying to make serious progress to end the war."

However, the likelihood of a breakthrough remains uncertain, as both sides continue to clash over energy facilities and Russia remains insistent on substantial territorial concessions from Ukraine. Kyiv insists on robust guarantees against future Russian aggression and has refused to cede any territory.

The talks follow Jared Kushner's recent optimism about achieving a deal, despite the US midterm elections' impact on the White House's negotiating position. European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas expressed skepticism regarding Russia's willingness to negotiate an end to the war. Former US Assistant Secretary of State for Europe Daniel Fried criticized the Trump administration's approach, alleging it prioritizes Russia at the expense of Ukraine and Europe, offering more concessions to Moscow without any assurance of Moscow's genuine interest in negotiations.

Russian President Vladimir Putin appears confident in his negotiating position, viewing Trump as politically weakened post-midterm elections and eager to secure a diplomatic victory. Previous negotiations have mostly resulted in humanitarian outcomes, such as prisoner exchanges and the return of Ukrainian children to Russia, but have not progressed on the core disagreements that hinder a resolution.