The world will soon shoot past 1.5°C. What does this mean?

The world is set to surpass the 1.5°C temperature threshold, a critical milestone for global climate action. This outcome is unavoidable despite global efforts to combat the climate crisis, with current policies potentially leading to a 2.6°C rise by the end of the century. The Paris Agreement aimed to limit warming to 1.5°C or 2°C, but the latter is now becoming increasingly likely.

COP31, the annual UN climate conference taking place in Antalya, Turkey, is focusing on the push to keep the 1.5°C goal "within reach." This involves cutting emissions and utilizing extensive carbon removal, although reversing temperatures once they overshoot 1.5°C will be extremely challenging. Scientists predict that for every 1000 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide emitted, the global mean temperature increases by 0.45°C. Therefore, removing 660 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide would be required to offset an overshoot of 0.3°C.

Small island nations, backed by the European Union and the United States, were instrumental in advocating for the 1.5°C target in the Paris Agreement. The High Ambition Coalition, which includes these nations, argues that 1.5°C is the only viable target to secure a future for their citizens. However, the reality of the 1.5°C target is grim, as small island nations are already experiencing the devastating impacts of climate change, including rising sea levels and extreme weather events.

To reverse temperature increases once we overshoot the 1.5°C target, deep emissions cuts and large-scale carbon dioxide removal are essential. However, the scale of carbon removal required is immense, and technological solutions such as direct air capture are currently limited in capacity. The best hope lies in continued international cooperation, as demonstrated by the COP process, which has enabled countries to commit to climate action and foster collaboration between nations.