Somali Piracy Resurgence: Understanding The Risk To Commercial Shipping

The Gulf of Aden, Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and Somali Basin have once again become hotspots for piracy, posing a significant risk to commercial shipping. After a period of relative calm from 2012 to 2024, piracy has resurfaced since 2024 and has intensified in 2026. This resurgence is attributed to state weakness and diverted naval efforts, making it easier for pirates to operate.

Additionally, connections between Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) logistics and pirate groups like Al-Shabaab, Houthis, and Pirate Action Groups (PAGs) further incentivize piracy. Somali pirates' primary objective is to hijack vessels and demand ransom payments in exchange for the safe return of crew members and ships.

With the monsoon season ending, pirates now have favorable weather conditions to launch attacks from motherships, even from distances up to several hundred nautical miles from the coast. Since 2024, there has been a notable increase in piracy incidents, with 15 recorded cases in the first nine months of 2026, accounting for 94% of all crew members taken hostage globally.

In response to the surge in piracy, the Royal Navy's Combined Task Force 151 responded to 25 piracy-related incidents between February and August 2026. Most piracy activities occur in coastal areas due to the ease of reaching commercial vessels, but there has also been a notable rise in pirate attacks on high-value tankers in the Gulf of Aden, possibly in coordination with the Houthis due to the lucrative ransom payments.

Somali pirates have been increasingly using large vessels as motherships, as seen with the repurposing of the cement carrier SWARD. The hijacking of vessels has resulted in a significant number of crew members remaining hostage, including those stranded for several months after the hijacking, such as the crew of ASANA. The return of pirate activity can be attributed to the declining control of the Somali Federal Government, which has exacerbated piracy conditions.

In early 2026, officials in the South-West state announced their intention to break away from the federal government, primarily due to President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's constitutional reforms. This decision led to the federal government seizing the state's administrative capital, Baidoa, but intermittent clashes have continued in the region.

The loss of the South-West state further undermines the federal government's authority and creates an environment conducive to piracy. Furthermore, ongoing threats from Al-Shabaab and the increased commercial traffic in the Somali basin have created more opportunities for pirates to target vessels.