Scientists predict 2026 hottest year on record as climate talks begin

Scientists predict 2026 will be the hottest year recorded, as climate change and El Niño combine to raise global temperatures, according to a forecast from Berkeley Earth. The research group is 95% confident that 2026 will exceed the record set in 2024, even with two months remaining in the year. Recent extreme weather events, such as wildfires in Europe and a deadly glacier collapse in Nepal, have exacerbated the heat.

Dr. Robert Rohde of Berkeley Earth noted that this trend of record-breaking years is expected as global warming continues. The EU's Copernicus climate service confirmed that October was the hottest month on record, but Rohde warned that more dramatic changes could lie ahead. The primary cause of rising temperatures is the increase in carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere, largely due to the burning of fossil fuels.

The UN's World Meteorological Organization (WMO) predicts that 2026 will be one of the four warmest years on record, and that 2027 will be even hotter due to a powerful El Niño event. This highlights the challenges faced by negotiators gathered in Turkey for COP31, the latest UN climate summit. While the focus has traditionally been on reducing emissions, countries are now also grappling with adapting to new weather extremes.

Simon Stiell, the UN's climate chief, emphasized the urgency of the situation, stating that no single conference can bridge the gap between science and reality. The UK defense secretary warned of the economic and social impacts of increasing natural disasters, including wildfires and record heat made more likely by climate change.

Stephen Belcher, chief scientist at the Met Office, emphasized that the world is no longer in the climate conditions of the 20th century, and these changes will affect all aspects of life. The additional greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have trapped extra heat, with about 90% of it absorbed by the oceans. El Niño, a natural climate pattern, is exacerbating the situation by releasing heat that has been stored in the oceans.

The world is currently on track for 2.8C of warming by the end of the century, far exceeding the 1.5C goal set under the Paris Agreement. COP31 negotiators will discuss various measures to address these challenges, including expanding renewable energy, reducing waste, and focusing on electrification, though some countries remain divided on the extent to which gas can be used as a transition fuel.