Luanda to overtake Lagos as Sub-Saharan Africa’s most populous city by 2050 – World Bank

Luanda, Angola's capital, is set to surpass Lagos as the most populous city in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2050, according to projections from the World Bank. The World Bank's report, "Sub-Saharan Africa’s Urban Awakening: Catalyzing Economic Growth and Job Creation," forecasts that Luanda's population will surge from 11.4 million in 2025 to 20.3 million by 2050, marking an 78% increase over the next 25 years. Conversely, Lagos is anticipated to grow by over 25%, from 12.8 million in 2025 to 16.2 million by 2050.

The World Bank report highlights that population growth will reshape the rankings of Sub-Saharan Africa’s largest cities by 2050. While Luanda will record one of the most significant increases, Lagos will still retain its status as one of Africa’s major urban centers. Other cities projected to see substantial growth include Bamako, which will increase by 80% from 4.2 million in 2025 to 7.6 million in 2050, and Mogadishu, with a 64% rise from 4.4 million to 7.2 million.

On the other hand, Cape Town and Kano are expected to fall out of the top 15 ranking, with their populations growing by 36% and 31%, respectively.

Despite the anticipated shift in population rankings, Lagos remains a crucial economic hub in Africa. However, the World Bank has cautioned in its May 2025 Nigeria Development Update that Nigeria’s economic growth rate must increase about fivefold by the end of the decade to meet its national target. This warning was further elaborated in an earlier Nairametrics report discussing the feasibility of Nigeria’s goal to achieve a $1 trillion economy.