Iraq’s 5 Million Bpd Oil Claim Complicates Its OPEC Quota Push
Iraq's campaign for a larger OPEC production allocation has taken a complicated turn after Oil Minister Basim Mohammed Khudair said the country is already producing more than 5 million barrels per day, more than half a million barrels above its current OPEC+ requirement. Khudair’s statement raises a basic question over Iraq’s current production as OPEC prepares to set production levels for 2027.…
Iraqi Oil Minister Basim Mohammed Khudair has claimed that Iraq is currently producing over 5 million barrels of oil per day, which is over half a million barrels more than its current OPEC production quota. This statement has added complexity to Iraq's efforts to increase its OPEC production allocation. In early October, Iraq joined six other OPEC countries in agreeing to maintain their current production levels for December, putting Iraq's production at 4.431 million barrels per day.
Shortly after Khudair's claim, the Oil Ministry reaffirmed Iraq's commitment to the 4.431 million bpd ceiling, but provided no figures. Iraq has been trying to secure a larger quota for itself, aiming for around 6 million bpd. OPEC, however, is assessing each member's maximum sustainable production capacity independently. Khudair's statement does not clarify whether his production figure refers to crude production or exports, as OPEC's compliance is measured based on production estimates from independent sources.
The recent Iran war has disrupted Gulf exports, leading some to question if OPEC might become more focused on exports rather than production. As of now, there is no indication that OPEC has changed its approach to measuring compliance.
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