Indian rupee breaks six-day winning streak on state banks' dollar bids

Mumbai - The Indian rupee ended Monday's trading session after a six-day winning streak, as strong dollar bids from state-run lenders overwhelmed recent positive momentum. The Indian currency managed to hit a six-month high of 93.69 per dollar, marking a more than 1% rally from the prior week. However, it closed slightly lower at 93.9275 per dollar, down from its previous closing rate of 93.9050.

Some traders suggested that the state-run banks' dollar purchases might have been made on behalf of the central bank, which has taken recent measures to tackle the persistent supply-demand imbalance in the foreign exchange market. Additionally, a fall in crude oil prices lessened pressure on the Indian currency, prompting foreign investors to return to equities.

Experts at Emkay Global, including Madhavi Arora, believe that the Reserve Bank of India may use any sustained improvement in inflows to rebuild its foreign exchange buffers, rather than allowing a sharp appreciation in the rupee. The central bank's substantial net short forward position and India's ongoing current account funding needs are likely to curb the currency's upside, she added.

The RBI's net short dollar position in the forward market surged to an all-time high of nearly $240 billion in September, leaving it with considerable future dollar commitments. Amit Pabari, the managing director at FX advisory firm CR Forex, noted that the US dollar has strengthened following a stronger-than-expected October jobs report. The US non-farm payrolls grew by 165,000 in October, surpassing expectations of 65,000, which pushed the US 10-year yield higher.

A Reuters poll indicates that US retail inflation is likely to have stood at 3.9% on-year in October, with the data due on Tuesday evening. This information is expected to be released on Tuesday evening. CR Forex's Pabari added that a higher-than-anticipated reading could reinforce expectations of another Federal Reserve rate hike, providing fresh support to the dollar.