India bonds could rally some more as fundamentals favour bulls
Benign oil prices and Treasury yields boost investor sentiment
Indian government bonds may experience further gains at the beginning of the new week, buoyed by low oil prices and Treasury yields, according to a private-bank trader. The benchmark 6.94% 2036 bond yield is expected to remain in the range of 7.15% to 7.20%, following a decline of 22 basis points to 7.1898% on Friday. This downturn was triggered by a Democratic victory in the US midterms, which lowered crude prices and boosted Treasuries.
The election result renewed optimism about resolving the Iran war, leading to a decline in oil prices of over 16% for the week, the steepest since April 2020. While bond bulls currently dominate the market, volatility remains a risk factor, the trader noted. Oil prices experienced a drop in Asian hours after US President Donald Trump stated he was unlikely to order fresh strikes on Iran, even as both countries reported attacks on ships in or near the Strait of Hormuz.
Given India's reliance on oil imports, fluctuations in oil prices impact the local currency, inflation trajectory, and government finances. Traders will closely watch India's October inflation data, released on Thursday, as it could influence the Reserve Bank of India's policy stance. Recent data suggests that India's consumer inflation may have risen to 5.93% in October from 5.54% in September, nearing the RBI's 2%-6% target range due to rising food prices.
Overnight index swaps may also see a slight decline, mirroring bond yields. Overnight index swaps (OIS) rates fell by 39 basis points last week to 6.33%, while 2-year rates dropped 40 bps to 6.34%, and 5-year rates declined 38 bps to 6.48%.
Written by urgent.news from Hindu BusinessLine's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
