Escaping Russia’s web: Central Asia is caught between Chinese networks and US tech curbs

Central Asia finds itself in a precarious position, caught between the expanding Chinese networks and the tightening US tech restrictions. Last month, three Russian data centers were targeted by Ukrainian drones, crippling crucial apps across the region. In response, Tajikistan swiftly established an internet connection between its capital, Dushanbe, and Beijing via an optical fiber cable traversing the rugged Pamir Mountains.

This link provides a direct pathway to Hong Kong and represents Tajikistan's fifth international communication access point. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan have forged their own alternative route, inaugurating a 236-mile undersea cable across the Caspian Sea. This subsea link bypasses Russian territory and directs Central Asian data through Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey into Europe.

However, this ambitious effort to shield Central Asia from Russian vulnerabilities may not yield the desired digital autonomy. The region's geographical constraints have already limited its digital sovereignty. Kazakhstan boasts 17 fiber-optic lines with Russia but only a handful with China and neighboring countries, while Russian internet providers dominate over 90% of its internet traffic and supply around 80% of international bandwidth.

The Yandex data center, a key infrastructure provider in the region, suffered significant disruptions in October due to Ukrainian drone strikes in western Russia. This incident highlights the urgent need for Central Asian nations to diversify their data transit and computing capacities. However, observers warn that the region may inadvertently accumulate dependencies on both China and the US.

While China offers readily available equipment and swift project implementation, concerns over potential data leverage and climate change monitoring remain. Kazakhstan, with its resource wealth, appears to hold more bargaining power compared to indebted nations like Tajikistan. The digital landscape in Central Asia is further complicated by internal disparities, with resource-rich countries like Kazakhstan potentially wielding more influence in infrastructure negotiations.