Dax-Sentiment: Anleger setzen auf steigende Kurse – aber ohne Absicherung

Düsseldorf – In the past week, the German Dax index saw no significant movement on the stock market. However, daily fluctuations were substantial. On Thursday, the leading index was up by 3.4 percent, reaching a record high before erasing all gains by the weekend. The mood shift in the United States was triggered by the Democratic victory in the midterm elections, which could lead to stricter regulation of artificial intelligence (AI).

As a result, the broader US index (S&P 500) lost nearly three percent in the week, while the technology index (Nasdaq 100) dropped close to five percent. The reduced risk appetite also impacted the German market. The sentiment of domestic investors, as reflected in the Handelsblatt Dax-Sentiment survey, remained largely unchanged.

Over 10,000 private investors were asked about their current assessment of the market each Friday morning until Saturday night. Stephan Heibel, Managing Director of the analysis house AnimusX, analyzed the responses and supplemented them with other indicators. The survey result showed that investors were largely unmoved by recent market volatility.

The sentiment (Sentiment) rating fell from 21.6 points the previous week to 17.8 points. "This is still slightly above the average: good mood without excess," said Heibel. Despite this, unease is emerging, with self-satisfaction dropping from 1.61 to 1.50 points. Negative extremes begin around 1.4 points. It is measured by asking survey participants if their expectations for the previous week were met.

The lower this, the greater the unease. However, future expectations rise from 12.1 to 15.8 points. Extremes begin with 19 points. Future expectations are measured by asking survey participants to state what market phase they expect in three months. "Rising prices, growing optimism: this is the usual reversal reflex," said Heibel.

Accordingly, investor appetite for buying also increases, from 55.4 to 60.4 points, the highest since the trade dispute in April 2025. This puts the buying readiness in the positive extreme area, starting at 59 points. This brings the survey result close to a warning signal for euphoria. According to the sentiment theory, euphoria is dangerous because euphoric investors have already invested, leaving few buyers to push prices higher.

Euphoric sentiment has historically preceded the end of an uptrend more often than other weeks. Heibel warns that the low level of hedging among investors could be a problem. "If the AI sell-off spills over to the German market, there is no safety net," he said. However, Heibel does not see an immediate euphoria danger among investors: "The self-satisfaction shows unease, not recklessness.

A clear warning signal would not be derived from this." Heibel advises caution: "I would only share the buying enthusiasm of our participants with caution and prioritize quality over quantity: if you buy, invest in companies that can fund their investments from cash flow." To participate in the survey, sign up for the Dax-Sentiment newsletter.

The survey begins every Friday morning and ends on Saturday night. More information: Buy or sell? Experts evaluate market turbulence.