China’s factory-gate inflation gains momentum in October, consumer price pressures stay muted

China's producer inflation surged to its fastest rate in nearly four and a half years in October, while consumer inflation eased, according to data released on November 9. This indicates ongoing cost pressures stemming from higher oil prices, even though domestic demand remains subdued. The producer price index climbed by 5.7% in October from a year ago, surpassing economists' predictions of a 5.3% increase, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

Conversely, the consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.7% year on year, slightly below the forecasted 0.8% rise. On a monthly basis, the CPI aligned with expectations for no change, following a 0.2% rise in September. Despite China's third-quarter economic growth outpacing expectations, driven by strong exports, weak household demand continues to restrain consumer spending.

Ongoing trade tensions and a volatile global outlook also cast uncertainty over the outlook for exports. External shocks are taking a more significant toll, while the disparity between abundant supply and weak domestic demand remains evident, as per a state planner official in October. China's struggling stock market, with artificial intelligence-related stocks plummeting amid concerns about AI demand and export restrictions, could further dampen consumer spending.

Efforts to curb the renminbi's rapid appreciation, which have squeezed exporters' margins while demand remains robust, and stabilizing the capital market, have yet to yield a substantial recovery in consumer sentiment.