China: Arrivals up 30% MoM, iron ore futures move sideways and consolidate at highs

China's iron ore market saw a 30% increase in arrivals on a month-over-month basis, with futures prices moving sideways and consolidating at higher levels. The most-traded DCE contract I2701 closed at 687.5 yuan per metric ton, marking a slight 0.07% increase from the previous trading day. Spot prices at Qingdao Port, however, dropped by an average of 3 yuan per metric ton. Trader activity remained moderate, with limited inquiries from steel mills and thin spot transactions overall.

According to SMM statistics, as of November 6, iron ore inventories at 35 major ports nationwide amounted to 149.13 million metric tons, a 1.08 million metric ton increase week-over-week. Despite a notable decline in port arrivals this week, ports still witnessed a slight inventory buildup. It is expected that arrivals will rebound the following week, potentially leading to further accumulation in port inventory.

On the demand side, the daily average port pick-up volume across the 35 ports decreased by 55,000 metric tons week-over-week to 3.12 million metric tons. Hot metal production at steel mill blast furnaces also declined, and port cargo pick-up weakened in tandem. Overall, the momentum behind the rebound driven by bear position liquidation has weakened somewhat. With persistent port inventory buildup, the upside potential in futures is currently capped.

In the short term, iron ore prices may consolidate at higher levels, a slight shift from yesterday's slightly bullish outlook. Investors should closely monitor port arrivals and steel mill maintenance changes for further insights into market dynamics. Sources indicate that SMM data should be considered for this assessment.