Israel’s next government: Why Eisenkot’s 67-seat backing may not be enough to end Netanyahu’s rule

Gadi Eisenkot has been tasked with creating Israel's next government, but his path is fraught with challenges. With only 67 parliamentary seats backing him, he needs to turn that support into a majority capable of replacing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The October 27 election left Israel's political parties deeply divided, making coalition negotiations a daunting task.

While Eisenkot has garnered more recommendations than Netanyahu, these endorsements do not guarantee votes for a new government. The ideological, religious, and ethnic divisions among parties supporting Eisenkot could make this a challenging endeavor. If he fails, Netanyahu may remain caretaker prime minister, prolonging political deadlock or triggering fresh elections.

To succeed, Eisenkot must secure support from a mix of parties, including Arab and ultra-Orthodox parties, each with their own demands and reservations. Netanyahu holds 46 seats, but lacks a majority with his ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism party refusing to back him. Arab-led parties won a record 19 seats in the election, potentially giving them significant influence.

However, some parties like Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beiteinu and the Joint List have ruled out joining a government with Arab parties. Ultra-Orthodox parties, holding 13 seats, could provide another route to a majority but clash with Eisenkot's stance on military service exemptions. The biggest hurdle may be uniting his own allies, who have varying political priorities ranging from left-wing to centrist views.

Eisenkot has floated the idea of forming a national emergency government or an initial minority government, but Netanyahu's camp has rejected these options. If Eisenkot cannot form a coalition, Netanyahu could try again to form one himself. Failure to do so might lead to another election unless another candidate secures enough parliamentary support.