In setback to Netanyahu, rival Eisenkot to be tasked with forming next Israeli government. But the path remains complicated

In a setback for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his main rival, Gadi Eisenkot, a retired military chief, has been given the task of forming Israel's next government. This development brings Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving leader, one step closer to his potential ousting. Eisenkot, who led the centrist Yashar party in the recent October 27 election, will have up to six weeks to attempt to assemble a coalition to replace Netanyahu.

However, forming a government for Eisenkot remains a complicated task due to various political obstacles and divisions within the opposition.

President Isaac Herzog officially granted Eisenkot the mandate to form a government on Sunday. Herzog's decision came after consultations with all parties elected to the Knesset, a parliamentary body. Eisenkot garnered the support of 67 members, including 19 from the two Arab parties, while Netanyahu received only 46 recommendations.

A significant rift within Netanyahu's once-loyal bloc emerged during the consultations when United Torah Judaism, a traditional ally of Netanyahu, declined to back him. Despite this, Herzog's decision does not automatically dismiss Netanyahu from power. Eisenkot holds a mandate and a parliamentary majority in theory, but he still needs to establish a governing coalition.

Eisenkot aims to form what he calls a "national emergency government" and is eager to swear in a minority government as soon as possible. This potential coalition would consist of four Jewish opposition parties, including his own Yashar, Together, led by former Prime Ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beiteinu, and the left-wing Democrats, led by Yair Golan.

However, Eisenkot has four conditions for joining this coalition: recognizing Israel as a Jewish, democratic, liberal, and egalitarian state, adhering to the values of the Declaration of Independence, implementing universal service, and acknowledging Hamas as a terrorist organization. These conditions effectively exclude the Arab parties from holding cabinet positions, although they could still provide support from outside the government, serving as a parliamentary safety net.

Israeli law requires a simple majority to establish a government. Removing one member from a coalition is far more challenging, necessitating an absolute majority of 61 votes who support an alternative government. With 120 seats in the Knesset, this hurdle is a significant obstacle for Eisenkot. One of the key obstacles Eisenkot faces is Avigdor Liberman, the leader of Yisrael Beiteinu.

Liberman, who has held various ministerial positions in the past, has ruled out any government reliant on the Arab parties. He argues that a minority government would be short-lived and would only strengthen Netanyahu's position. Liberman recently expressed his concerns on X, predicting that a minority government would lead to Netanyahu returning to power with 70 seats for another four years, potentially resulting in his eventual removal from office.