Acorns—not deer—can predict a rise in Lyme-spreading ticks
Despite deer’s essential role in tick reproduction, looking to acorn numbers instead can forecast Lyme disease booms almost two years in advance
Despite the common belief that deer ticks cause Lyme disease, the risk of infection can be predicted using acorn numbers, according to a new 35-year study from New York State. The research, published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, reveals that the abundance of red oak acorns in the fall significantly impacts tick populations.
When acorn production is high, white-footed mice thrive during winter and reproduce more in the following summer. These mice serve as ideal hosts for tick larvae, increasing the likelihood of nymph ticks surviving and becoming adult ticks. Adult ticks feed on deer before laying eggs, but the number of nymph ticks—responsible for spreading Lyme disease to humans—relies mainly on the number of mice.
Richard Ostfeld, lead study author and a senior scientist at the Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, explains that knowing acorn production can forecast Lyme disease outbreaks up to two years in advance. While the study emphasizes the importance of acorns over deer in predicting Lyme risk, it also acknowledges that adult ticks feed on deer, which is crucial for tick reproduction.
However, the presence of deer alone does not significantly impact tick numbers in areas with abundant deer populations. The study's findings also suggest that warmer weather increases mouse populations but decreases nymphal ticks, potentially limiting climate change's overall impact on Lyme disease risk.
Written by urgent.news from Scientific American's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
