Will the US midterm ‘blue tsunami’ erode China’s faith in Trump and Xi’s relationship?

The recent US midterm elections have left President Donald Trump in a weaker position to maintain a strong relationship with China, analysts suggest. Democrats are poised to control both the House and Senate in January, following the "blue tsunami" that flipped former Republican strongholds. This shift could pose challenges for Trump's efforts to normalize US-China relations, as the incoming Democratic majority gains the power to block legislation, control federal spending, and investigate the Trump administration.

Chinese experts warn that the Democrats' control of Congress could "make things difficult" and create obstacles ahead of upcoming meetings between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. These encounters, including the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen and the Group of 20 meeting in Miami, may become tense as Democrats scrutinize past deals and demand more from the Trump administration.

Zhao Minghao, a Fudan University professor, notes that newly elected Democratic lawmakers are staunch supporters of Taiwan and may push for stronger US support for the island, a red line for Beijing. Zhao further highlights that a Democrat-controlled Congress may accelerate measures to tighten export controls on advanced AI chips and semiconductor manufacturing equipment destined for China, as well as restrict investments in China's chip sector.

While Trump still holds some leverage with Beijing due to US advantages in markets, finance, and technology, Zhao believes that the erosion of his political capital could force him to seek reciprocal returns, raise his demands, or even employ tough rhetoric to deflect domestic criticism. The overall challenge ahead, according to Zhao, is to turn the leaders' consensus into policies that can be sustained over time.